> From: Dr. Tony Kern, Lt Col, USAF (Ret)
>
> Recently, I was asked to look at the recent events through the lens of
> military history. I have joined the cast of thousands who have written
> an "open letter to Americans."
>
> Dear friends and fellow Americans 14 September, 2001
>
> Like everyone else in this great country, I am reeling from last week's
> attack on our sovereignty. But unlike some, I am not reeling from
> surprise. As a career soldier and a student and teacher of military
> history, I have a different perspective and I think you should hear it.
> This war will be won or lost by the American citizens, not diplomats,
> politicians or soldiers.
>
> Let me briefly explain.
>
> In spite of what the media, and even our own government is telling us,
> this act was not committed by a group of mentally deranged fanatics. To
> dismiss them as such would be among the gravest of mistakes. This
> attack was committed by a ferocious, intelligent and dedicated
> adversary. Don't take this the wrong way. I don't admire these men and
> I deplore their tactics, but I respect their capabilities. The many
> parallels that have been made with the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor
> are apropos. Not only because it was a brilliant sneak attack against a
> complacent America, but also because we may well be pulling our new
> adversaries out of caves 30 years after we think this war is over, just
> like my father's generation had to do with the formidable Japanese in
> the years following WW II.
>
> These men hate the United States with all of their being, and we must
> not underestimate the power of their moral commitment. Napoleon,
> perhaps the world's greatest combination of soldier and statesman,
> stated "the moral is to the physical as three is to one." Patton
> thought the Frenchman underestimated its importance and said moral
> conviction was five times more important in battle than physical
> strength. Our enemies are willing - better said anxious -- to give
> their lives for their cause.
>
> How committed are we America? And for how long?
>
> In addition to demonstrating great moral conviction, the recent attack
> demonstrated a mastery of some of the basic fundamentals of warfare
> taught to most military officers worldwide, namely simplicity, security
> and surprise. When I first heard rumors that some of these men may have
> been trained at our own Air War College, it made perfect sense to me.
> This was not a random act of violence, and we can expect the same sort
> of military competence to be displayed in the battle to come.
>
> This war will escalate, with a good portion of it happening right here
> in the good ol' U.S. of A.
>
> These men will not go easily into the night. They do not fear us. We
> must not fear them. In spite of our overwhelming conventional strength
> as the world's only "superpower" (a truly silly term), we are the
> underdog in this fight. As you listen to the carefully scripted
> rhetoric designed to prepare us for the march for war, please realize
> that America is not equipped or seriously trained for the battle ahead.
> To be certain, our soldiers are much better than the enemy, and we have
> some excellent "counter-terrorist" organizations, but they are mostly
> trained for hostage rescues, airfield seizures, or the occasional "body
> snatch," (which may come in handy). We will be fighting a war of
> annihilation, because if their early efforts are any indication, our
> enemy is ready and willing to die to the last man. Eradicating the
> enemy will be costly and time consuming. They have already deployed
> their forces in as many as 20 countries, and are likely living the lives
> of everyday citizens. Simply put, our soldiers will be tasked with a
> search and destroy mission on multiple foreign landscapes, and the
> public must be patient and supportive until the strategy and tactics can
> be worked out.
>
> For the most part, our military is still in the process of redefining
> itself and presided over by men and women who grew up with - and were
> promoted because they excelled in - Cold War doctrine, strategy and
> tactics. This will not be linear warfare, there will be no clear
> "centers of gravity" to strike with high technology weapons. Our vast
> technological edge will certainly be helpful, but it will not be
> decisive. Perhaps the perfect metaphor for the coming battle was
> introduced by the terrorists themselves aboard the hijacked aircraft --
> this will be a knife fight, and it will be won or lost by the ingenuity
> and will of citizens and soldiers, not by software or smart bombs. We
> must also be patient with our military leaders.
>
> Unlike Americans who are eager to put this messy time behind us, our
> adversaries have time on their side, and they will use it. They plan to
> fight a battle of attrition, hoping to drag the battle out until the
> American public loses its will to fight. This might be difficult to
> believe in this euphoric time of flag waving and patriotism, but it is
> generally acknowledged that America lacks the stomach for a long fight.
> We need only look as far back as Vietnam, when North Vietnamese General
> Vo Nguyen Giap (also a military history teacher) defeated the United
> States of America without ever winning a major tactical battle.
> American soldiers who marched to war cheered on by flag waving Americans
> in 1965 were reviled and spat upon less than three years later when they
> returned. Although we hope that Usama Bin Laden is no Giap, he is
> certain to understand and employ the concept. We can expect not only
> large doses of pain like the recent attacks, but! also less audacious
> "sand in the gears" tactics, ranging from livestock infestations to
> attacks at water supplies and power distribution facilities.
>
> These attacks are designed to hit us in our "comfort zone" forcing the
> average American to "pay more and play less" and eventually eroding our
> resolve. But it can only work if we let it. It is clear to me that the
> will of the American citizenry - you and I - is the center of gravity
> the enemy has targeted. It will be the fulcrum upon which victory or
> defeat will turn. He believes us to be soft, impatient, and
> self-centered. He may be right, but if so, we must change. The
> Prussian general Carl von Clausewitz, (the most often quoted and least
> read military theorist in history), says that there is a "remarkable
> trinity of war" that is composed of the (1) will of the people, (2) the
> political leadership of the government, and (3) the chance and
> probability that plays out on the field of battle, in that order. Every
> American citizen was in the crosshairs of last Tuesday's attack, not
> just those that were unfortunate enough to be in the World Trade Center
> or Pentagon. The will of the American people will decide this war. If
> we are to win, it will be because we have what it takes to persevere
> through a few more hits, learn from our! mistakes, improvise, and
> adapt. If we can do that, we will eventually prevail.
>
> Everyone I've talked to In the past few days has shared a common
> frustration, saying in one form or another "I just wish I could do
> something!" You are already doing it. Just keep faith in America, and
> continue to support your President and military, and the outcome is
> certain.
>
> If we fail to do so, the outcome is equally certain.
>
> God Bless America
>
> Dr. Tony Kern, Lt Col, USAF (Ret) Former Director of Military History,
> USAF Academy
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