When the lottery gets really big, there are lots of news stories about it.
More people buy tickets. The chance of more than one winner goes up. How do
you incorporate this additional variable in calculating the positive
outcome?
Herb Miller
-----Original Message-----
From: spridgets-bounces at autox.team.net
[mailto:spridgets-bounces at autox.team.net] On Behalf Of Steven Guterman
Sent: Friday, April 01, 2011 2:03 PM
To: Curt/Nancy Arndt
Cc: spridgets at autox.team.net
Subject: Re: [Spridgets] The Lottery - off topic
Curt, While true if you play all the time you have a negative expected
value, once the lottery gets to be large (not sure of the exact number, say
over 150 million) it does have a positive expected outcome.
Strategy, play when it is over $150 million and cross your ringers just in
case!!!
have fun.
Steve
On Fri, Apr 1, 2011 at 11:27 AM, Curt/Nancy Arndt <cnaarndt at gmail.com>wrote:
> Anyone who regularly plays the lottery failed math is school.
>
> Cheers,
>
> Curt
>
> On Fri, Apr 1, 2011 at 7:59 AM, Tim Collins <thcollin at mtu.edu> wrote:
>
> > No April foolery stuff here, but scratch your head about this. . .
> >
> > The news media is making a big deal about the lottery winner who
> > stepped out of line to get a candy bar and then someone stepped in
> > liine ahead of him. The insinuation is that had the guy not cut in
> > line, the candy bar
> guy
> > would not have won. I believe this is a false concept mathematically
> because
> > every play of the lottery is random. I believe that the media is
> > leading people astray in the mathematical reasoning behind this
> > situation. It
> does
> > make for good stories about not cutting in line and being a good
> > citizen, but I don't believe the math supports the media story.
> >
> > To me this is like stepping to the counter, a new deck of cards is
> opened,
> > shuffled, and I get to pick a card. When the guy behind me has his
> > turn,
> a
> > new deck is opened, shuffled and a card given to him. There's no
> connection
> > between my number and his. Or my place in line, or the day of the
> > week or
> .
> > . . anything. We just want to organize "random."
> >
> > My wife says I'm wrong. LOL What do you say?
> >
> >
> > Tim Collins
> >
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