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Re: end of driving season

To: "b-evans@earthlink.net" <b-evans@earthlink.net>
Subject: Re: end of driving season
Date: Wed, 16 Nov 2005 09:22:33 -0600
Cc: spridgets@autox.team.net
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References: <KIEOLHBDMHNKIHEPBIIEMEGECNAA.hal@katemuir.com> <437A1CA5.2000103@earthlink.net> <43840a7e0511151059s26808ec8jb3fae1646d0bc28c@mail.gmail.com> <437A5C2A.6040606@earthlink.net>
On 11/15/05, b-evans@earthlink.net <b-evans@earthlink.net> wrote:
>
> Jim Johnson wrote:
>
>  Okay Buster, I have to jump in here. For those that don't know, I'm a
> meteorologist and tornado researcher with 40 years in the field.
>  You have a source for this statement? I ask because it flies in the face
> of the facts above...
>
> Do I have a source? You bet! As a reporter/editor/writer, as a cop, and as
> a university historian, I long ago learned to demand evidence! Now,
> admittedly my research into this subject came in 2003, so only goes through
> the year 2000, and is therefore somewhat dated:
>
> 150.7 Annualized American deaths due to hurricanes (1900 to 2000)
> 54.7 Annualized American deaths due to tornadoes (1975-2000)
> 38.0 Annualized American deaths due to earthquakes (1900 to 2000)
>
> Snow/blizzard related deaths are more difficult to compile. However, the
> National Snow and Ice Data Center has maintained, "Snow kills hundreds of
> people in the United States each year. The primary snow-related deaths are
> from traffic accidents, overexertion, and exposure, but deaths from
> avalanches have been steadily increasing."
>
> Your odds of dying in a tornado are1-in-60,000, while for an earthquake it
> is only 1-in-131,890.
>
> My sources were NOAA, USGS, NSIDC, CDC and the National Center for Health
> Statistics.
>
> While we were discussing the end of the driving season in the U.S., you
> may well be correct in other areas of the world.

 Precisely. I did specify "world wide" in my data. You did not specify, but
I'm assuming your data is USA only? I still find the "odds" data interesting
because it doesn't match up with our data at all. I can't speak for the
earthquake data as that falls under USGS rather than NOAA, NWS. Our data, on
the other hand, from a cooperative study by the National Weather Service
National Severe Storms Laboratory in conjunction with Environment Canada
shows your odds of being killed by a tornado as 1 - in - 12,000,000. More
interesting facts from one of my colleagues is
at:
 http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/users/brooks/public_html/tornado/
 I do find your statistics on the Aniline Environmental web site at:
 http://www.aniline.com/knowledgebase/Tech_Reports/risk.html
 Unfortunately, they do not show where or how they arrive at their figures
and their figures are dramatically out of tolerance with ours.
 The winter weather conundrum will remain for a long time. It's very hard to
equate a death due to drowning in a hurricane, by flying debris in a tornado
with a heart attack from shoveling snow, yet that is exactly what many
people do. I grew up in the snow belt of up-state New York. We just stayed
home when hit by a blizzard. Nowadays, however, people seem to be compelled
to go out into the hazard and tempt fate! There should be a category for
death due to stupidity!
 One more item of possible interest. My brother is a PhD in Geology and has
turned down several very good jobs on the left coast. He says, "Knowing what
I know about the state of the San Andreas system of faults, how could they
expect me to move my family out there. For those people, the clock is
ticking..." I agree that *SO FAR* your earthquakes have been nothing to
terrible. However, according to many of his fellow geologists, it is only a
matter of time...
 FWIW, my sister and her husband live in San Diego. They are unswayed as you
are... ;-)
 Cheers!
Jim - he of the inert midget in Dodge City

The U.S., with Japan, has the most stringent earthquake-proof building codes
> in the world. The two story brick building standing next to the 65 storey
> Los Angeles sky-scraper will crumble to dust while the skyscraper simply
> bounces back and forth on its springs! Other countries have not learned the
> lessons of building safely.
>
> Buster
>
>
>


--
1964 R60/2
1968 MG Midget
1976 R90/6
1990 K100LT
**Don't underestimate the power of stupid people in large groups.**




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