On 11/15/05, firstname.lastname@example.org <email@example.com> wrote:
> Jim Johnson wrote:
> Okay Buster, I have to jump in here. For those that don't know, I'm a
> meteorologist and tornado researcher with 40 years in the field.
> You have a source for this statement? I ask because it flies in the face
> of the facts above...
> Do I have a source? You bet! As a reporter/editor/writer, as a cop, and as
> a university historian, I long ago learned to demand evidence! Now,
> admittedly my research into this subject came in 2003, so only goes through
> the year 2000, and is therefore somewhat dated:
> 150.7 Annualized American deaths due to hurricanes (1900 to 2000)
> 54.7 Annualized American deaths due to tornadoes (1975-2000)
> 38.0 Annualized American deaths due to earthquakes (1900 to 2000)
> Snow/blizzard related deaths are more difficult to compile. However, the
> National Snow and Ice Data Center has maintained, "Snow kills hundreds of
> people in the United States each year. The primary snow-related deaths are
> from traffic accidents, overexertion, and exposure, but deaths from
> avalanches have been steadily increasing."
> Your odds of dying in a tornado are1-in-60,000, while for an earthquake it
> is only 1-in-131,890.
> My sources were NOAA, USGS, NSIDC, CDC and the National Center for Health
> While we were discussing the end of the driving season in the U.S., you
> may well be correct in other areas of the world.
Precisely. I did specify "world wide" in my data. You did not specify, but
I'm assuming your data is USA only? I still find the "odds" data interesting
because it doesn't match up with our data at all. I can't speak for the
earthquake data as that falls under USGS rather than NOAA, NWS. Our data, on
the other hand, from a cooperative study by the National Weather Service
National Severe Storms Laboratory in conjunction with Environment Canada
shows your odds of being killed by a tornado as 1 - in - 12,000,000. More
interesting facts from one of my colleagues is
I do find your statistics on the Aniline Environmental web site at:
Unfortunately, they do not show where or how they arrive at their figures
and their figures are dramatically out of tolerance with ours.
The winter weather conundrum will remain for a long time. It's very hard to
equate a death due to drowning in a hurricane, by flying debris in a tornado
with a heart attack from shoveling snow, yet that is exactly what many
people do. I grew up in the snow belt of up-state New York. We just stayed
home when hit by a blizzard. Nowadays, however, people seem to be compelled
to go out into the hazard and tempt fate! There should be a category for
death due to stupidity!
One more item of possible interest. My brother is a PhD in Geology and has
turned down several very good jobs on the left coast. He says, "Knowing what
I know about the state of the San Andreas system of faults, how could they
expect me to move my family out there. For those people, the clock is
ticking..." I agree that *SO FAR* your earthquakes have been nothing to
terrible. However, according to many of his fellow geologists, it is only a
matter of time...
FWIW, my sister and her husband live in San Diego. They are unswayed as you
Jim - he of the inert midget in Dodge City
The U.S., with Japan, has the most stringent earthquake-proof building codes
> in the world. The two story brick building standing next to the 65 storey
> Los Angeles sky-scraper will crumble to dust while the skyscraper simply
> bounces back and forth on its springs! Other countries have not learned the
> lessons of building safely.
1968 MG Midget
**Don't underestimate the power of stupid people in large groups.**