[Shop-talk] everybody OK with Covid-19?

Thu Mar 19 18:36:46 MDT 2020

Italy is experiencing what happens when there is a surge of patients that overwhelms the facilities that have to deal with them. Read this article from the Wall Street Journal.

Yes, Flatten the Curve

 <https://www.wsj.com/articles/yes-flatten-the-curve-11584571566?emailToken=c88fc14202045fe10c3c5f23e00da591tk9bWtzKEEOEm+N8VgtDUItbwMMzWA2cJrcff3cjz2BePIvZ8cEAosLA8TEa0BYP1JoiVUyiGqRes8QPSmJgEg%3D%3D&reflink=article_email_share>- Bill Rabel
  Anacortes
  Sheltering In Place with a Gin & Tonic at the moment

> On Mar 19, 2020, at 5:12 PM, Donald H Locker via Shop-talk <shop-talk at autox.team.net> wrote:
> 
> But we know that Italy has good health care, as does Germany and the US. We are succumbing because the virus is more dangerous and has a mortality rate that exceeds that of influenza by a factor of 20x-40x. (China in general may not have the best of health everywhere, but Wuhan is a very modern, sophisticated, healthy city. Even there, the mortality rate was 4.6% (3130/67800 as of today) - that is HUGE by any measure. Italy's mortality rate is 8.3% (3405/41035); USA is at 1.5% (200/13680) as of 15 minutes ago.
> 
> This is not a disease to take lightly from all the evidence.
> 
> We'll be able to tell if we haven't taken adequate precautions because we will have a catastrophe. If we take adequate or more-than adequate precautions, we will have a nothingburger - that is the goal and we should all strive for it, IMO. The catastrophe scenario (1918 Flu, Flint water, Fukushima) is not one I wish on anyone.
> 
> Donald.
> 
> *Plain Text* email -- it's an accessibility issue
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> 
> On 2020-03-19 6:31 p.m., eric--- via Shop-talk wrote:
>> I do appreciate everyone's comments here.  I'm not trying to start a war or anything, and I will stop if no one wants to hear my side (just let me know)
>> But I'm guessing we all have some extra time on our hands now and this is a great way to stay in touch with others, without risk.
>> A few rebuttals,
>> Yes, they are saying that this seems to be more fatal then the flu, however, I believe there are 2 main reasons for that.
>> 1-where it started, china then moved to Iran.  Both of these places have poor nutrition, poor medical care (and even poorer access to it.), and elderly populations.  Italy also has poor medical care (albeit better than the other two.)  So fatalities were higher than average modern populations.
>> 2-Then, there is most likely a vast populations (even in those areas) that got the virus, and shrugged it off as the flu, got better, and never reported it.  So that means that you can track 100% of the fatalities, but you do not know how many 'sick but were fine' people you had.  This will artificially inflate fatality statistics.
>> So, that is why it may SEEM to be worst. Next, comparing this to the Spanish flu is unfair as we have a way more advance medical machine worldwide now.  Even if that flu hit today, there wouldn't be the same amount of deaths.
>> For my job. I have been living and breathing this stuff for almost two weeks. We are taking a in depth look at every aspect.  The victims in our state all had other serious health issues. In fact the first person to die here had just about every major issue you can think of.
>> Is it sad people are dying? Yes. I am not trying to down play it.  But these were all people that the flu most likely would have impacted as well.  It doesn't make it any less tragic, but it does instill fear in the rest of the population for something they can't see the details on. People see a "number of fatalities" statistic.  But they don't see the "aggravating factors for each person" facts.
>> My point is that the response may be way worst than the virus itself. Entire cities/states/countries shutting down.  Livelihoods lost.  People losing jobs, and means to support their families. Even with stimulus packages (that further reduce the dollars worth) business will be closed for good, jobs that don't come back. All because populations of people that were vulnerable to the flu or other viruses, contracted one called 'covid-19.'  If they contracted the regular flu and died, it would have been like any other year. I hate to sound so insensitive, but it is because I'm rooting for the whole society and what's best for the vast majority. (yes, I'm sure sounds like the plot to an original Star Trek episode.)
>> Populations are panicking, I hope we don't see riots for food and supplies as people are being bombarded with more and more fear mongering by the media. And yes, people choose their media,but the vast majority of people just watch one side of the 24h networks and have no idea how mis-informed they are. I can say without reservations that the people on this list are unequivocally in the 'better informed and educated' group, but go talk to the average person on the street if you want to see how mis-informed people are. A good test is to ask 100 people "who the speaker of the house is?"  I'd be amaze if you got 10 correct answers (and if more than 20 people even had an educated guess.)
>> Even if it doesn't come to riots, the stress on people, the loss of educational opportunities (many college students may have to repeat classes or entire semesters, delaying their graduations.)
>> Or, if there is a REAL emergency that comes later, how many people will completely ignore it because covid-19 was a big nothing burger?
>> I'm not even going to go into my future prediction, as this is already enough of a bummer.
>> To leave on a positive note, it is awesome that most families are going to get to spend a ton of time together.  It's great that we get time to pursue our passions and hobbies. It is also great that this is happening when we are entering spring and the weather is breaking.
>> Please feel free to comment, I will not respond unless asked to as I don't want this to drag out unless there is enough interest.  This list has been a great resource for me for decades, and I respect each and ever one of you opinions and advice.
>> Now, I'm going back to look in the sofa cushions to see if I missed something.  8>)
>> "Be as beneficent as the sun or the sea, but if your rights as a rational being are trenched on, die on the first inch of your territory." Ralph Waldo Emerson
>> -Who is John Galt?
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