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Re: SARS - Travel Advisory - Toronto Area - Mosport

To: elliottd@look.ca, Herald948@aol.com, fot@autox.team.net
Subject: Re: SARS - Travel Advisory - Toronto Area - Mosport
From: Group44TR7@aol.com
Date: Wed, 23 Apr 2003 15:46:24 EDT
Don

       While I agree with the fact that the present situation seems to be low 
risk, I do feel obligated to take exception to the analogy to the common 
cold.

       Almost everyone in North America experiences at least one or more 
colds per year, so the death rate of even 10,000 would be less than 1 in at 
least 25,000 based a population of at least 250,000,000 people. If my math is 
right it would be lower than .004% mortality based on 10,000 deaths.

       The SARA virus, based on 5.9% mortality, with the same exposure in 
North America (250 million people) would theoretically produce about 15 
million deaths. Hopefully this will put into perspective why there is such 
concern over this virus. 

       However, I do share your opinion that the situation, at the present, 
appears to be contained. And that I would prefer to be driving rather than 
flying to Toronto. Further, by June, it might be the US citzens who are 
banned from coming into Canada because of outbreaks here in the states. 

Cary  

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