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On Mon, Mar 16, 2020 at 7:43 PM someone wrote:
> This is no different then swine flu, bird flu, Sars, or any of the other
> types of outbreaks we have recently had. But this one has the media waging
> the dog.
>
I am not an epidemiologist. But I do help to keep a high-containment
infectious disease lab running, so some of this has rubbed off...
This is, of course, very much like SARS - they are cousins on the virii
family tree (Coronavirus is also called SARS-CoV-2). It is like swine flu
and bird flu, in that it seems to be transmitted as an aerosol.
What makes it different is that it is a novel coronavirus. That means we
haven't seen it before. H1N1 flu is very similar to H5N9 and a host of
other variants - but we understand the virus in general, and have a good
chance to make a vaccine to prevent it or reduce its effect, depending on
how well we guess that year's mutation. But this virus is taking some time
to understand it...meanwhile, we aren't 100% sure how it is transmitted
(though there are some educated guesses), and we aren't very close to any
sort of vaccine. Latest estimates from CDC and WHO indicate it is fatal in
about 3% off cases - though that's in /known/ cases, which is a number we
don't have any handle on at all. The actual rate could be less, but it
definitely goes up with age and impaired physical condition.
We are behind the 8 ball here for a number of reasons - and yes, some of
them are political - so we have to do the best with what we know. And what
we know is that if you are in a room with infected people, your chance of
exposure goes up. If you don't wash your hands, your risk of exposure goes
up. And, you can be infested - and shedding virus - and not know it.
So, if you dig down through all the noise, you find the media actually
saying:
Wash your hands frequently. If you can't wash them, use hand sanitizer.
Avoid being in small spaces with lots of other people.
If you start showing symptoms, look to your local public health agency for
guidance. Look at the CDC web site.
My county is debating a curfew (which won't help much, except to limit
exposure to drunks in college bars) and debating a limit on the number of
people that can gather in a public or semi-public place (which might
actually help, but it's something you can do already).
So, you have a shop, right? And a pile of projects, right? So, avoid Cars
& Coffee this month, and finish that overhaul you started six years ago.
That's my two cents.
Jeff Scarbrough
Corrosion Acres, Ga.
.
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<div dir=3D"ltr"><div dir=3D"ltr"><br></div><br><div class=3D"gmail_quote">=
<div dir=3D"ltr" class=3D"gmail_attr">On Mon, Mar 16, 2020 at 7:43 PM someo=
ne wrote:<br></div><div>=C2=A0</div><blockquote class=3D"gmail_quote" style=
=3D"margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding=
-left:1ex"><font size=3D"3" face=3D"Calibri">This is no different then swin=
e flu, bird
flu, Sars, or any of the other types of outbreaks we have recently had.
=C2=A0But this one has the media waging the dog.</font>
<br>
</blockquote><div><br></div><div>I am not an epidemiologist.=C2=A0 But I do=
help to keep a high-containment infectious disease lab running, so some of=
this has rubbed off...</div><div><br></div><div>This is, of course, very m=
uch like SARS - they are cousins on the virii family tree (Coronavirus is a=
lso called SARS-CoV-2).=C2=A0 It is like swine flu and bird flu, in that it=
seems to be transmitted as an aerosol.</div><div><br></div><div>What makes=
it different is that it is a novel coronavirus.=C2=A0 That means we haven&=
#39;t seen it before.=C2=A0 =C2=A0H1N1 flu is very similar to H5N9 and a ho=
st of other variants - but we understand the virus in general, and have a g=
ood chance to make a vaccine to prevent it or reduce its effect, depending =
on how well we guess that year's mutation.=C2=A0 But this virus is taki=
ng some time to understand it...meanwhile, we aren't 100% sure how it i=
s transmitted (though there are some educated guesses), and we aren't v=
ery close to any sort of vaccine.=C2=A0 Latest estimates from CDC and WHO i=
ndicate it is fatal in about 3% off cases - though that's in /known/ ca=
ses, which is a number we don't have any handle on at all.=C2=A0 The ac=
tual rate could be less, but it definitely goes up with age and impaired ph=
ysical condition.<br><br>We are behind the 8 ball here for a number of reas=
ons - and yes, some of them are political - so we have to do the best with =
what we know.=C2=A0 And what we know is that if you are in a room with infe=
cted people, your chance of exposure goes up.=C2=A0 If you don't wash y=
our hands, your risk of exposure goes up.=C2=A0 And, you can be infested - =
and shedding virus - and not know it.<br><br>So, if you dig down through al=
l the noise, you find the media actually saying:</div><div><br></div><div>W=
ash your hands frequently.=C2=A0 If you can't wash them, use hand sanit=
izer.</div><div><br></div><div>Avoid being in small spaces with lots of oth=
er people.</div><div><br></div><div>If you start showing symptoms, look to =
your local public health agency for guidance.=C2=A0 Look at the CDC web sit=
e.<br><br>My county is debating a curfew (which won't help much, except=
to limit exposure to drunks in college bars) and debating a limit on the n=
umber of people that can gather in a public or semi-public place (which mig=
ht actually help, but it's something you can do already).<br><br>So, yo=
u have a shop, right?=C2=A0 And a pile of projects, right?=C2=A0 So, avoid =
Cars & Coffee this month, and finish that overhaul you started six year=
s ago.=C2=A0 That's my two cents.</div><div><br></div><div>Jeff Scarbro=
ugh</div><div>Corrosion Acres, Ga.<br><br>.=C2=A0=C2=A0</div><div><br></div=
></div></div>
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