But we know that Italy has good health care, as does Germany and the US.
We are succumbing because the virus is more dangerous and has a
mortality rate that exceeds that of influenza by a factor of 20x-40x.
(China in general may not have the best of health everywhere, but Wuhan
is a very modern, sophisticated, healthy city. Even there, the mortality
rate was 4.6% (3130/67800 as of today) - that is HUGE by any measure.
Italy's mortality rate is 8.3% (3405/41035); USA is at 1.5% (200/13680)
as of 15 minutes ago.
This is not a disease to take lightly from all the evidence.
We'll be able to tell if we haven't taken adequate precautions because
we will have a catastrophe. If we take adequate or more-than adequate
precautions, we will have a nothingburger - that is the goal and we
should all strive for it, IMO. The catastrophe scenario (1918 Flu, Flint
water, Fukushima) is not one I wish on anyone.
Donald.
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On 2020-03-19 6:31 p.m., eric--- via Shop-talk wrote:
> I do appreciate everyone's comments here. I'm not trying to start a war
> or anything, and I will stop if no one wants to hear my side (just let
> me know)
>
> But I'm guessing we all have some extra time on our hands now and this
> is a great way to stay in touch with others, without risk.
>
> A few rebuttals,
>
> Yes, they are saying that this seems to be more fatal then the flu,
> however, I believe there are 2 main reasons for that.
> 1-where it started, china then moved to Iran. Both of these places have
> poor nutrition, poor medical care (and even poorer access to it.), and
> elderly populations. Italy also has poor medical care (albeit better
> than the other two.) So fatalities were higher than average modern
> populations.
>
> 2-Then, there is most likely a vast populations (even in those areas)
> that got the virus, and shrugged it off as the flu, got better, and
> never reported it. So that means that you can track 100% of the
> fatalities, but you do not know how many 'sick but were fine' people you
> had. This will artificially inflate fatality statistics.
>
> So, that is why it may SEEM to be worst. Next, comparing this to the
> Spanish flu is unfair as we have a way more advance medical machine
> worldwide now. Even if that flu hit today, there wouldn't be the same
> amount of deaths.
>
> For my job. I have been living and breathing this stuff for almost two
> weeks. We are taking a in depth look at every aspect. The victims in
> our state all had other serious health issues. In fact the first person
> to die here had just about every major issue you can think of.
> Is it sad people are dying? Yes. I am not trying to down play it. But
> these were all people that the flu most likely would have impacted as
> well. It doesn't make it any less tragic, but it does instill fear in
> the rest of the population for something they can't see the details on.
> People see a "number of fatalities" statistic. But they don't see the
> "aggravating factors for each person" facts.
>
> My point is that the response may be way worst than the virus itself.
> Entire cities/states/countries shutting down. Livelihoods lost. People
> losing jobs, and means to support their families. Even with stimulus
> packages (that further reduce the dollars worth) business will be closed
> for good, jobs that don't come back. All because populations of people
> that were vulnerable to the flu or other viruses, contracted one called
> 'covid-19.' If they contracted the regular flu and died, it would have
> been like any other year. I hate to sound so insensitive, but it is
> because I'm rooting for the whole society and what's best for the vast
> majority. (yes, I'm sure sounds like the plot to an original Star Trek
> episode.)
>
> Populations are panicking, I hope we don't see riots for food and
> supplies as people are being bombarded with more and more fear mongering
> by the media. And yes, people choose their media,but the vast majority
> of people just watch one side of the 24h networks and have no idea how
> mis-informed they are. I can say without reservations that the people on
> this list are unequivocally in the 'better informed and educated' group,
> but go talk to the average person on the street if you want to see how
> mis-informed people are. A good test is to ask 100 people "who the
> speaker of the house is?" I'd be amaze if you got 10 correct answers
> (and if more than 20 people even had an educated guess.)
>
> Even if it doesn't come to riots, the stress on people, the loss of
> educational opportunities (many college students may have to repeat
> classes or entire semesters, delaying their graduations.)
>
> Or, if there is a REAL emergency that comes later, how many people will
> completely ignore it because covid-19 was a big nothing burger?
>
> I'm not even going to go into my future prediction, as this is already
> enough of a bummer.
>
> To leave on a positive note, it is awesome that most families are going
> to get to spend a ton of time together. It's great that we get time to
> pursue our passions and hobbies. It is also great that this is happening
> when we are entering spring and the weather is breaking.
>
> Please feel free to comment, I will not respond unless asked to as I
> don't want this to drag out unless there is enough interest. This list
> has been a great resource for me for decades, and I respect each and
> ever one of you opinions and advice.
>
> Now, I'm going back to look in the sofa cushions to see if I missed
> something. 8>)
>
> "Be as beneficent as the sun or the sea, but if your rights as a
> rational being are trenched on, die on the first inch of your
> territory." Ralph Waldo Emerson
> -Who is John Galt?
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