In a message dated 97-11-07 11:08:47 EST, gprtech@ix.netcom.com writes:
<< > List
> TR Action arrived here today and in it Mr. Piggott , TR 2/3 registrar,
> reports the number of cars they have in the Triumph Register. It's really
a
> rather dismal count, but Piggott states in the report that he is certain
that
> the true number of cars owned by the 7389 members of the Triumph
Register
> is perhaps as much as 50% higher than reported.
>
> TR2 - 287
> TR3 - 215
> TR3A - 584
> TR3B - 24
>
> TR4 - 526
> TR4A - 667
> Dove 10
>
> TR 5 330
> TR 250 59
>
> TR 6 - 2362
>
> TR7 1122
> TR 8 52
>
> Italia 8
> Doretti 14
> Peerless 24
> Warwick 1
>
> Total 6285 TR's registered
>
Bob, is this for Britain, USA or all? I know that I'm not a member of
the TR, either US or GB, and many others aren't either.
Even 50% higher wouldn't approach the number of TR2/3/3A cars that I'm
sure still exist in the USA.
If I owned one of the 215 TR3 cars still in existence, it would be worth
much more than what it is now.
--
George Richardson
>>
George;
This is simply the number of cars currently registered with that particular
club. Most of the membership is in England, so most of the cars are there
also. I am sure you are correct that membership in the TR Register, the
English club, in the US is certainly very low, but most of the cars were
shipped here.
This is just one small piece of information about how many cars are KNOWN to
be around. It is certainly nowhere near to a total number of cars in
existance, but the number is useful is making estimates of the total.
Piggot also mentioned that in the entire history of the TR Register (28
years), around 3,500 different sidecurtain cars have been registered. UK
sales of sidecurtain cars are reported as around 6,000 total. If the cars
registered with the TR Register are all in the UK then 40% of the cars ever
sold in the UK are presumable still around ! Even if you guess that 25% of
the membership is out of the UK, that's still a 30% survival rate in the UK.
That's quite a large figure I'd say, but remember also that using this
figure (3,500 total different cars ever registered) we are assuming that ALL
of the cars surviving in the UK have been registered at one time or another
with this club. This is almost certainly not the case, some UK sidecurtain
cars surely have never been registered with the club. Therefore the survival
estimate cannot be LOWER, but may be HIGHER.
This is just one way to try to get an estimate. An estimate is a guess. The
more facts you have upon which to base an estimate, the better the estimate
is. It is a fact that 3,500 different sidecurtain cars have been registered
with the TR Register. It is also a fact that only 6,000 sidecurtain cars
were sold in the UK. The rest is guesswork and simple math. Is the estimate
correct ? Estimates are not really correct or incorrect, they are educated
guesses, some are better than others. It is possible to actually compute the
range of error + or - which tells you how good your guess is.
If you assume for a moment that a 30% survival rate is reasonable for the UK
and that the survival rate is the same in the US then we would estimate about
30% of the total production run of 83,500 sidecurtain cars are still around
which is approximately 25,000 TR 2/3/3A/3Bs. With around 90% of the total
production run shipped to the US we would guess that 90% of the 25,000
remaining cars are surviving in the US now ,which is 22,500 total sidecurtain
cars .
In the case of the TR 3 there were around 13,300 produced, 30% survival
estimate = approximately 4,000 TR3s left 90% in the US = 3,600 TR3s estimated
survived in the US.
Now to search for other facts which might modify these estimates, such as:
Number of sidecurtain cars registered with:
The Triumph Register of America
The Vintage Triumph Register
Moss Motors
The Roadster Factory
any other ideas ??
Yes, these are estimates. Correct, they are not accurate. They are guesses
based on a very few facts and a lot of assumptions, but they are better than
wild off the top of the head guesses and it's all for fun.
This is quite long if there is little interest I will take it off the list in
the future, so please let me know.
Bob Paul
Corrales NM
TS71101L
TS45738L O
TS7280L
(This means that I own .01246789% of the surviving sidecurtain cars , WOW!!)
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