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RE: Re-emergence of Triumph...

To: "'triumphs@autox.team.net'" <triumphs@Autox.Team.Net>
Subject: RE: Re-emergence of Triumph...
From: Kurt Oblinger <koblinger@linkline.com>
Date: Wed, 14 Oct 1998 21:54:41 -0700
Fellow scions,

How many times has this come up before? Won't happen, and the reason it won't 
happen has nothing to do with tradition, its all business. The head of BMW has 
stated several times that aside from the MG, which was already in production 
when BMW bought Rover, it had no plans to revive any of the classic nameplates 
that Rover held license to. The head of BMW NA said the same thing to a direct 
question I posed at the 1997 LA Auto Show. The head of BMW has stated that BMW 
will not sell "re-badged" cars, either built by them or someone else. All the 
BMW dealerships I know are standalone dealerships, not dualed like "Anytown 
Buick - Subaru". That is for a reason. They have spent a lot of time and money 
building a public perception of their product and they are not about to mess 
with it. The Mini, when it comes to the US in 2000, will not be badged as a BMW 
and will be marketed and sold as a separate marque, through dealerships which 
may be associated with BMW dealerships, but will be separate entities. I think 
the Mini will most likely be sold alongside Land Rovers. If BMW wanted to bring 
back a trad brit nameplate, they already have the MGF. It would not be that 
difficult to legalize it and bring it into the US. The reason they don't is the 
same reason that Fiat and Alfa don't bring their cars to the US, not enough 
market to justify the expense. And its not just the expense of producing a US 
legal car, there's importing, distribution, dealerships, parts, service, 
service support, advertising etc etc. A new Triumph wouldn't be a niche car, it 
would be a micro-niche car.

The ultimate micro-niche car is the Morgan. They produce about 300 cars a year 
and currently have a 3+ year backlog. Do you see them expanding? New factory 
building? New tooling (gasp)? No, they know their market is very narrow and not 
likely to expand much. Ferrari produces about 4500 cars a year and has no plans 
to increase. The market for a 2 seat sports car in the US is relatively fixed 
and unlikely to expand much. Currently, at the bottom, is the Miata at about 
$23k up to, what, the Viper at $60k. In between you have the Corvette, NSX, 
Boxster, Mercedes SLK, the three versions of the Z3, and the soon to come 
Honda. The only real room in the market would be for a sub $20k car, and the 
problem there is that the profit margin on low priced cars is very small so the 
volume has to be high. And the potential sales volume for a 2 seat sports car 
in that price range just isn't enough. If a sports car in that price range 
comes to the US it will probably be from Korea and with their economic problems 
that is even unlikely. 

Lets face it, although many of us think differently, a 2 seat sports car is a 
more of an impractical indulgence than a necessity. These days, when a young 
person is looking for a "sporty" car in the $20k range, it's a RAV4 or a Honda 
CRV or a Suzuki Grand Vitara (just saw my first one last Friday). 

When it comes down to it on this question, I am both a bit relieved and a bit 
saddened, relieved because I am convinced that if Triumph were revived, it just 
wouldn't be a very satisfying product, and saddened that in today's 
multi-national corporate climate, no one's willing to even give it a decent 
shot.

Cheers,

Kurt Oblinger
Redondo Beach, Ca.
TR2
TR3
TR7
Vitesse Convt.
Swallow Doretti
Norton Commando
BMW M3



 


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