Let me agree with Greg and add my .02 worth. I believe, no matter how
much electric car/alternative fuel research is done, that we will
continue to use gasoline as our primary fuel until it is *completely*
gone. Most of us will refuse to change our fuel because of the range,
power, and convience of gas. I have this vision of one day, car by car,
*everyone* running out of gas and the cars slowly rolling to a stop and
everyman getting out, start walking to his destination, and saying "Now
where is that bus when you need it?"
Dwade
gkirk@e2.empirenet.com wrote:
>
> the likely hood of the death of the private automobile is pretty low, at
> least in the near term (i.e anytihg in the nxt 50 years). I tend to
> agree with Marcus on this one, there is a HUGE automiblie infrastructure
> in place, and to repalce the cars we are all so used to driving, will
> require a massive shift in the allocation of resources, and the Govt' is
> in no position to spend that kind of money these days. In fact, the one
> thing that I see going on is the "inteligent vehicle/intelligent highway"
> concept, to improve the efficiency of private auto transportation
> systems. there are at least three test projects going that I know of.
>
> Suburbia is just not viable without private cars, and folks, suburbia is
> where the voters live. Business parks are useless without private cars,
> as are shopping malls. We may see a push to electric vehicles, and
> alternative fuels, but the disapearance of the private car is a long long
> way off. Not until the shopping malls and business owners loose ther
> voice at the political table. The Science fiction pundits, and the computer
> industry
> press like to tell us about how we will all live in the country and
> telelcommute to work at jobs halfway around the world. Well I'll beleiv
> it when I see it, because already in many companies we are seeing a
> backlash against telecommuting. People don;t wnat ot do it because it
> cuts them out of the social environment at work, and they get reduced
> recognition for thier accomplishments, i.e lower riases and fewer promotions.
>
> telecommuting forgot one major thing, work isn;t only about getting a
> taks done, it's also a scial activity, and that part cannot be repalced
> by any amount of fancy electronics, lucas or otherwise. (had to get some
> LBC content in here after all)
>
> Greg
>
> On Tue, 29 Jul 1997, Rick Feibusch wrote:
>
> > This in from Marcus Tooze<mtooze@tan.unl.edu>:
> > Rick,
> > I found your emailand views on the future really interesting. I personally
> > don't think I will live to see the day that car usage in the US decreases
> > to the extent that you predict (I'm 25!)....I don't think the manufacturers
> > would stand for it...not until they can get the standard of living
>(disposable
> > income) up in the developing countries of Africa and Asia anyway.
> > Moreover, the US is now so 'dedicated' to automobiles...there is
> > so much infrastructure built purely for and around cars, I think the
> > days you predict are a long way off. New car sales continue to increase
> > in the US (I don't know how they manage it!)...and Americans just love
> > cars like no other people I have ever met. I think there would have to be
> > a major shift in socio-economic ties before the car left
> > the 'pedestal' that it stands on in the US.
> > Marcus
> >
> > Marcus,
> > - At first glance what you have written seems to be a valid assumption,
> > BUT as today's cars age there will be a difference as they won't be able to
> > be kept alive and smog legal by clever folks in their garage and the poor
> > will be forced into the public transportation that the government will be
> > required to institute because they have regulated reasonable car ownership
> > out of existance. The rest of us will discover the joys and freedom of
> > telecommuting as well as the ease and savings a good public transportation
> > system can provide. Ask the folks in San Francisco, New York or London.
> > The best that we can hope for is the ability to occationally use our
> > classics on the weekend without too much administrative red tape - See you
> > on the Funway! - Rick
> >
> >
> >
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