On Tue, 16 Dec 1997, EPaul21988 wrote:
> Automotive Information Clearinghouse...how they
> arrive at their estimates and was given a faily convincing explanation. In a
> nutshell, all cars are issued a title at first sale, all titles are held
> 'open' by all State MVDs (Motor Vehicle Departments) until notified by a
> wrecking yard that the car has been destroyed....
That's all well and good, but I'm not sure it's applicable in every state.
For example, in New York it was not until the 1973 model year that cars
first registered in New York were given a "title"; previous to that the
only proof of ownership was a transferable registration/certificate of
registration. It was also not until the early 1970s that NY's DMV began to
routinely process vehicle registrations via computerized system.
I have been told by a friend of mine in the employ of NY's DMV that there
are no "archival" records of old registrations. I found this out when I
attempted to find some record of my 1966 Triumph 2000, a car that has been
stored, unregistered, by at least two owners since about 1971.
[An aside: New York also was one of those states that, at least through
the early 1960s, tended to use engine numbers for registration of
vehicles, NOT commission or "VIN" numbers. Thankfully, the only two times
I ever attempted to register cars (1960 TR3A and 1962 Herald), they both
still retained original engines, and a "rubbing" of both commission and
engine numbers was sufficient proof for DMV to register the cars under the
commission number.]
> I figured that this estimate could be very high, since lots of cars are left
> to rust in owner's back yards or are parted out by enthusiasts who might frame
> the title for the wall but not sent it to the MVD, hence those cars would
> never be removed from AICs master list, but would be 'gone'.
That could be true. Again, in NY, until some time after the title law took
effect (and to some degree even now), it was not a problem to dispose of a
vehicle to a wrecking yard or any other method of "trash" dispoal without
showing proof of ownership. Laws now requiring licensing of "dismantlers"
have changed that somewhat, but it still can be fairly easy in some areas
of New York to dispose of a "complete" pre-1973 car, simply by dropping it
off at the appropriate transfer/recycling station or wrecking yard.
> AIC states ( they say this is NOT an estimate but a fact) that there are a
> total of 1,009 Triumph TR3 , 3As and 3Bs left in the United States !!!!
> According to the AIC there are only 311 TR2's left in the US. !! This is
> 1,320 left out of the 83,500 cars made. This is less than a 2% survival rate.
> Is this possible ??
Yes, it seems possible, particularly if one assumes that the 1,320
represents TRs with current or relatively recent registrations (still "in
the system"). I'm not clear, though, from what you've said whether that is
the case, or if the 1,320 represents the entire group of TRs that, to
AIC's knowledge, have NOT been formally scrapped, with "right, title and
interest sold", etc. Of the two TR3As that I currently own, only one has
been "in the system" as recently as 1975. Because of that, in New York
State there is (or was) a computerized record of the car in my name. The
other TR3A had no registration papers when I bought it. I also have a TR3B
with no paperwork, but that car was abandoned, not "scrapped"! I doubt
that these three cars are included in AIC's totals, and I doubt that the
'58 TR3A I parted out 12 years ago (also purchased incomplete and without
paperwork) was "formally" scrapped.
Given that, maybe it all balances out, the number of "unofficially"
scrapped cars mostly offset by the number of "dormant, awaiting
restoration" cars? I suppose AIC must have some formula for estimating,
based on all these variables. Of course, that might affect one's
definition of "fact"! ;-) (Not a slam against AIC; just an observation.)
> According to Bill Piggott of the Triumph Register in England, they have 1,110
> of the TR2/3 cars registered.
>
> I was guessing about 25,000 TR2/3s left in the US based on the numbers from
> the Triumph Register.
I suspect that 25,000 would be an unreasonably high survival rate. I don't
remember off-hand just how many of the sidescreen TRs were sold in the
U.S., but as a WAG I'd think it might be 2-3,000 of all models
(considering all those barn cars just waiting....) that still remain.
> Oh. I also got value and growth estimates on the TR2 & TR3 from the AIC.
> TR2
> Average $5,055
> Well Maintained $9,925
> Excellent $12,715
> -3.9% past year, predicted up .7% this year
>
> TR3 (includes 3,3A.3B as these were not differentiated by model)
> AVerage $4,990
> Well Maintained $7,935
> Excellent $12,420
> -3.7% past year
> + 1.1% next year
This is interesting as well, as many other sources I've seen over the
years tend to value the TR3 higher. If the above is accurate, it would
perhaps finally reflect the rarity of the TR2 as a factor at least as
important as overall number of sales or other measures of value.
> Anyone know how many of these models are registered wlith VTR or TRA ?
Off-hand, no, I don't. At some point, though, it would be interesting to
cross-reference lists from the two groups (to eliminate the duplicates, of
which I'm sure there are many), and see what sort of totals there are
represented in the major clubs.
--Andy (speaking only for myself here)
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
* Andrew Mace, President and *
* 10/Herald/Vitesse (Sports 6) Consultant *
* Vintage Triumph Register *
* amace@unix2.nysed.gov *
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
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