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RE: TR futures

To: triumphs@autox.team.net
Subject: RE: TR futures
From: Steve Myers <mountainunicycle@yahoo.com>
Date: Sun, 13 Feb 2005 15:35:06 -0800
Whew! What a thread...

A few thoughts about auto safety:

- Those who weren't so lucky to 'make it this far' aren't here to say 
they didn't.

- IMO, auto safety is all about probabilities multiplied by miles 
driven. If we stick to fatalities for simplicity, there is some chance 
you will die in the safest car on the road. You can increase that by 
driving a small car instead of a big car. You can increase that by 
driving a car with less safety equipment than more. You can increase 
that based on driving conditions--by driving on a busy freeway at rush 
hour when people are shaving and eating behind the wheel, instead of a 
freeway in the desert to the next VTR convention. And of course, if you 
*really* want to increase it, don't pay attention while driving. Then 
you mulitply the base probability for a given car and situation by the 
miles you drive in that configuration. It's a matter of what 
probability you're comfortable with, which is highly personal.

- Of course, it's hard to evaluate these probabilities without some 
understanding of what they are on an absolute scale (not just 
relative).  Sites like http://www.hwysafety.org and 
http://www.nhsta.dot.gov can help provide inputs to help you decide 
what absolute probability you're comfortable with (in addition to 
relative probabilities), and what you're willing to do to achieve it.

- Example: I feel that extra attention I pay to what's going on around 
me when driving my LBCs more than makes up for their size, for example. 
I'm perfectly happy multiplying that probability with the ~100 
miles/month I drive them. However, I unfortunately commute about 1200 
miles/month during busy commute hours, and personally I'm not 
comfortable mulitplying the 'safety probability' of the LBCs by that 
number of miles in a month. So I drive a 2000 VW GTI with lots of 
airbags and modern engineering. This is a small car, though, but I'm 
comfortable increasing my probability considering how much more fun it 
is compared to a bigger car, despite a 3000 lb car having 25% higher 
fatality rate than a 4000 lb car (as I recall).

- The insurance companies agree with this probability approach--there's 
a reason your insurance goes up when you get speeding tickets, or you 
drive more miles per year. You're more likely to die (again, sticking 
with fatalities for simplicity).

So pick the probability x miles you're personally comfortable with and 
drive happy!

Steve
71 TR6
72 GT6




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